The meaning of ‘climate change’ is fairly straightforward, a clear, sustained change (over a long period) in the components of climate, such as temperature, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, or winds. Such changes must constitute a clear trend, and be clearly distinguished from the small random variation in these parameters that takes place all the time. That is why climate change can only be determined after careful analysis over centuries and millennia of observations. In this context, it is important to understand clearly the difference between climate and weather.
Weather and climate – horses of a different colour.
Weather is the specific condition of the atmosphere at any particular place at any moment in time. It is described in terms of such variables as temperature, cloudiness, sunshine, fog, frost, precipitation, humidity, atmospheric pressure and wind. In most places, weather can change from hour-to-hour, day-to-day, and season-to-season.
Climate is the average of the weather, and any patterns in the weather, for a particular region over a long time period, usually for at least 100 years. Weather is determined by factors that change rapidly; climate is determined by factors much slower to change, or that do not change at all. Typically, the main determinant of a region’s climate is its latitude, followed by factors such as elevation, proximity to the ocean, and the presence of ocean currents. A simple way of remembering the difference is that climate is what you expect (e.g. cold winters) and weather is what you get (e.g. a blizzard on a particular day). As climate is a long-term average of weather conditions, variations in it are much more slowly evident than changes in the weather, which can occur in timeframes of a few hours.
Climate change can refer to change in the global climate or in regional climates. A range of variables can cause slow changes to climates anywhere on earth. Many of these factors are natural, for example, slight changes in the luminosity of the sun, subtle shifts to the earth’s axis or orbit, or the gradual drifting of the continents over millions of years. The composition of the atmosphere is also a major factor affecting the climate over the whole world, because it can determine how much heat the earth retains through the greenhouse effect.
Climate may change in a single region or across the whole planet. Throughout earth’s history, climates have changed. Change can be brought about by a variety of means including natural external factors or natural internal processes such as volcanic activity; or, as has occurred since the Industrial Revolution, human-induced (anthropogenic) factors.
Global warming (which is not considered a technical term) refers to an increase in the average temperature at the surface of the earth, or the lower part of the atmosphere. The various components of the climate, oceans and atmosphere are inextricably linked through complex feedback mechanisms, and a change in one component such as temperature will induce changes and adjustments in other components.
Other changes that have either already been observed or are projected to occur include sea level rise; changes in rainfall patterns; increases in extreme weather events; decreases in ice mass of glaciers, ice sheets and sea ice; ocean warming and acidification; changes in ocean circulation; and drying of the land.
The major problem with measurement of change is lack of data. Measurements of weather over the last couple of hundred years are quite detailed however changes to climate need data from a dozen centuries and the analysis of ice cores from kilometres under the ice cap. Only when this data is analysed will the models used to predict change and its consequences be able to be tested for veracity.
The debate about terminology would be an interesting side note were not the issue so important. Global warming, or climate change if you prefer, is the greatest threat facing humankind this century. These seemingly innocuous phrases profoundly affect how people perceive the issues, assess the seriousness and support efforts to mitigate global warming. The complication is that although terminology is important, the manner and scale of influence is difficult to measure or understand. Yet, commentators and communicators often firmly come down on one side or the other, with staunch views about what works and what doesn’t.
A significant contributor to this is the illusion of asymmetric insight, a fascinating cognitive bias that helps explain why climate communication is so diabolically difficult. Asymmetric insight is a phenomenon where someone believes they understand the reasons why other people do or believe things, while at the same time being sceptical that others could ever understand them. People, especially commentators, believe that they see the world how it really is, whereas most other people (especially those people who disagree with them) are deluded, ignorant or self-interested. The bias of asymmetric insight means that people are less likely to see others who disagree with them in nuanced or complex ways; simple things can explain complex and multifaceted changes in opinion or actions.
Tying into the difficulty of climate communications is the fact that typically the people doing research into this field are heavily invested in the area. Climate communicators mostly care deeply about the dangers of runaway climate change. The result is that they often underestimate the extent to which most people are ambivalent or uninterested in the issue.
Because asking questions about peoples’ attitudes on an issue will generally prompt a response, the disinterest and ambivalence is hidden, and so it is easy to assume that most people have a latent interest or concern about global warming, when in fact they probably don’t. The ups and downs of climate polling in Australia for example appears to show an increase in the polarisation over the issue, but it is easy to over emphasise that when you’re asking the question compared to large swathes of the community where the issue may rarely or never come up.
A study has found that as many people “use neither” (35 percent) as use the term “global warming” (35 percent) and more than double that use “climate change” (15 percent). This suggests that as a communications challenge, regardless of the term used, the biggest barrier is disinterest, not the specific language being used.
A lot of communications is done by heuristics, [heuristics are strategies using readily accessible, though loosely applicable, information to control problem solving in human beings and machines such as experience-based techniques for problem solving, learning, and discovery that give a solution which is not guaranteed to be optimal. Where the exhaustive search is impractical, heuristic methods are used to speed up the process of finding a satisfactory solution via mental shortcuts to ease the cognitive load of making a decision. Examples include using a rule of thumb, an educated guess, an intuitive judgment, stereotyping, or common sense] but even when hard numbers, in the form of polling, is brought to the equation, there is an enormous risk that judgemental shortcuts are used to interpret those numbers. Because we believe we can understand why people believe the things they do (while at the same time not believing that others could possibly understand us), it is easy to skew or ignore the results of research.
Just changing from one phrase to another without also shifting the context is unlikely to change attitudes. The challenge for climate communications is that we often think we are gaining valuable insights from research but more likely we are succumbing to the illusion of asymmetric insight.
Source: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/southern-crossroads/2014/jun/10/global-warming-climate-change-asymmetric-insight