The Kiss of Death?

The fake news hit Trent, Italy, on Easter Sunday, 1475. A two-and-a-half year-old child named Simonino had gone missing, and a Franciscan preacher, Bernardino da Feltre, gave a series of sermons claiming that the Jewish community had murdered the child, drained his blood and drunk it to celebrate Passover. The rumors spread fast. Before long de Feltre was claiming that the boy’s body had been found in the basement of a Jewish house. In response, the Bishop of Trent immediately ordered the city’s entire Jewish community arrested and tortured. Fifteen of them were found guilty and burnt at the stake. The story inspired surrounding communities to commit similar atrocities. Recognizing a false story, the papacy intervened and attempted to stop both the story and the murders. But the Bishop refused to meet the papal legate, and feeling threatened, simply spread more fake news stories about Jews. In the end, the popular fervor supporting anti-Semitic ‘blood libel’ stories made it impossible for the papacy to interfere with the church in Trent, who had Simonino canonized — Saint Simon — and attributed to him a hundred miracles. Today, historians have cataloged the fake stories of child-murdering, blood-drinking Jews, which have existed since the 12^th C as part of the foundation of Antisemitism. And yet, one anti-Semitic website still claims the story is true and Simon is still a martyred saint.

Yet even the Scientific Revolution and the Enlightenment could not stop the flow of fake news. For example, in the years preceding the French Revolution, a cascade of pamphlets appeared in Paris exposing for the first time the details of the near-bankrupt government’s spectacular budget deficit. Each came from a separate political camp, and each contradicted the other with different numbers, blaming the deficit on different finance ministers. Eventually, through government leaks and more and more verifiable accounts, enough information was made public for readers to glean a general sense of state finance; but, like today, readers had to be both skeptical and skilled to figure out the truth. The use of the term ‘fake news’ has strayed from simply describing factually incorrect reporting. Some fake news never dies. But amid all the recent hand-wringing about fake news and how to deal with it, one fact seems to have been lost: fake news is not a new phenomenon. It has been around since news became a concept 500 years ago with the invention of print, a lot longer, in fact, than verified, ‘objective’ news, which emerged in force a little more than a century ago. From the start, fake news has tended to be sensationalist and extreme, designed to inflame passions and prejudices. And it has often provoked violence.

It is perhaps not so surprising to hear that the problem of ‘fake news’ – media outlets adopting sensationalism to the point of fantasy – is nothing new. Although, the peddling of public lies for political gain or financial profit can be found in most periods of history dating back to antiquity, it is in the late 19th-century phenomenon of ‘Yellow Journalism’ that it first seems to reach the widespread outcry and fever pitch of scandal familiar today. Although these days his name is somewhat synonymous with journalism of the highest standards, through association with the Pulitzer Prize established by provisions in his will, Joseph Pulitzer had a very different reputation while alive. After purchasing The New York World and rapidly increasing circulation through the publication of sensationalist stories he earned the dubious honour of being the pioneer of tabloid journalism. He soon had a competitor in the field when his rival William Randolph Hearst acquired the The New York Journal.

The rivalry was fierce, each trying to out do each other with ever more sensational and salacious stories. At a meeting of prominent journalists it was claimed that due to their competition ‘the evil grew until publishers all over the country began to think that perhaps at heart the public might really prefer vulgarity’. The phenomenon can be seen to reach its most rampant heights, and most exemplary period, in the lead up to the Spanish-American War, a conflict dubbed ‘The Journal’s War’ due to Hearst’s immense influence in stoking the fires of anti-Spanish sentiment in the U.S. Much of the coverage by both the World and the Journal was tainted by unsubstantiated claims, sensationalist propaganda, and outright factual errors. When the USS Maine exploded and sank in Havana Harbor, huge headlines in the Journal blamed Spain with no evidence at all. The phrase, “remember the Maine, to Hell with Spain”, became a populist rousing call to action. The Spanish–American War began later that year.

As the disinformation age has continued to develop, science has not stood still. It has given us a more detailed picture than ever of the ways that disinformation hacks our truth judgments and what happens when we are subjected to repeated false claims. Research has found that even those of us who are intelligent, analytical and comfortable with ambiguity find statements more believable simply because we have heard them repeated. This phenomenon, known as the ‘illusory truth effect,’ was first documented in the 1970’s, but it is more relevant than ever in the era of fake news. Psychologists say that what makes repeated claims seem truer is their ‘fluency,’ meaning the cognitive ease with which we process a claim. Repeated claims are easier to represent and comprehend. For that reason, they just feel good. Our minds take this feeling as a cue that the claim is true.

Two additional ways disinformation hacks our truth judgments. One that is closely related to fluency and the good feelings it generates, is memory. The information and experiences stored in our memory are powerful weapons in the fight for truth. But, as with fluency, we take our memories as cues, not as the raw materials for forming well-considered judgments. We tend, in other words, to go with ‘near enough is good enough.’ We often accept claims as true when they only partially fit with what we know or remember. Additionally, we can fall prey to the ‘illusion of explanatory depth,’ a tendency to overestimate our knowledge and understanding of the issues in which we are interested. When we do, we are more likely to hold extreme beliefs and to accept fake news as true. Unfortunately, digital tools may be making our memories even weaker and less effective for judging truth. Search algorithms return content based on keywords, not truth. If you search ‘flat Earth,’ for example, Google dutifully returns photoshopped pictures for a ’50 meter wall of ice that keeps us from slipping off the planet.’ For this reason, relying on the internet as truth-on-demand rather than looking to our memories and acquired knowledge can backfire in serious ways.

On a winter afternoon in Helsinki, a group of students gathered to hear a lecture on a subject that is far from a staple in most community college curricula. Standing in front of the classroom at Espoo Adult Education Centre, the teacher worked his way through his PowerPoint presentation. A slide titled ‘Have you been hit by the Russian troll army?’ included a checklist of methods used to verify the content. Another slide, featuring a diagram of a Twitter profile page, explained how to identify bots: look for stock photos, assess the volume of posts per day, check for inconsistent translations and a lack of personal information. The lesson wrapped with a popular ‘deepfake’, highly realistic manipulated video of Barack Obama. The course is part of an anti-fake news initiative launched by Finland’s government in 2014, aimed at teaching residents, students, journalists and politicians how to counter false information designed to sow division. The initiative is just one layer of a multi-pronged, cross-sector approach the country is taking to prepare citizens of all ages for the complex digital landscape of today, and tomorrow. The Nordic country, which shares an 832-mile border with Russia, is acutely aware of what’s at stake if it doesn’t.

At the French-Finnish School of Helsinki, a bilingual state-run institution, that ethos is taken seriously. Classes are the embodiment of Finland’s critical thinking curriculum, which was revised in 2016 to prioritise the skills students need to spot the sort of disinformation that has clouded recent election campaigns in the US and across Europe. The school recently partnered with Finnish fact-checking agency Faktabaari (FactBar) to develop a digital literacy toolkit for elementary to high school students learning about the EU elections. It was presented to the expert group on media literacy and has been shared among member states. The exercises include examining claims found in YouTube videos and social media posts, comparing media bias in an array of different clickbait articles, probing how misinformation preys on readers’ emotions, and even getting students to try their hand at writing fake news stories themselves.

Perhaps the biggest sign that Finland is winning the war on fake news is the fact that other countries are seeking to copy its blueprint. Representatives from a slew of EU states, along with Singapore, have come to learn from Finland’s approach to the problem. The race is on to figure out a fix after authorities linked Russian groups to misinformation campaigns targeting Catalonia’s independence referendum and Brexit, as well as recent votes in France and Germany. Germany has already put a law in place to fine tech platforms that fail to remove obviously illegal hate speech, while France passed a law last year that bans fake news on the internet during election campaigns. Some critics have argued that both pieces of legislation jeopardise free speech.

Extracted from http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/UWALawRw/2012/7.pdf 

The ‘quality press’ or ‘broadsheets’ have been for the most part professional, although occasional bad judgement is inevitable under the time-pressures inherent in news-reporting. Murdoch’s ‘The Australian’ has from time to time been accused of waging political campaigns in breach of reasonable expectations of media behavior. Much worse misbehavior has been apparent in the lower-grade press, which have been for many years subject to the pejorative label of ‘tabloid’, [e.g. The NT News]. Meanwhile, the broadcast media, particularly television ‘news’, has become cavalier in its pursuit of video that will stimulate viewer interest. To justify their behavior, media outlets continue to use the term ‘journalism’ not only in its real sense, but also to refer to the pursuit of ‘sensational trivia’, frequently about people, which is more reasonably described as ‘voyeurnalism’.

The term ‘the press’ originally referred to journalism in print media, and the term ‘the fourth estate’ was initially used as a positive reference to its role in political processes. Media organisations whose origins were in ‘the press’ have migrated to new media as opportunities arose. In Australia, the large newspaper groups own or have significant interests in radio stations and television channels. During the late 1990’s, as the Internet became widely available, they also quickly moved into networked media, particularly in the form of web-sites that operate as adjuncts to their print operations [e.g. SKYNews]. Competition for content and for customer attention has greatly intensified, as media organisations moved onto one another’s turf, and as formal and informal newcomers emerged. The competition for revenue has been even more vicious. The Internet arrived without turnstiles. The ‘free as in beer’ ethos took hold, and it has proven very challenging for media organisations to sustain their subscriptions revenue. In 2011, News Corp began erecting a ‘paywall’, hoping to join the few strongly-reputed organisations that have been successful in charging for access [notably The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, The Economist and Nature]. Yet worse than the leakage of subscription revenue has been the hemorrhage of advertising revenue. Networked media gave rise to serious challenges to the dominance of print media over classified advertising. Meanwhile, in the display advertising area, not only is the available revenue now spread more thinly over more channels, resulting in less to each media organisation, but the business of advertising in networked media is now dominated by a single organisation, which extracts far higher margins than did the value-chains that have long existed in print and broadcast advertising.

Some of the worst examples of privacy invasions are available at http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/UWALawRw/2012/7.pdf Pp 9 -14.

[At the foundation of most fake news is the the media’s intrusions into the subjects privacy]. However, privacy-abusive information-collection behavior is protected unless the resulting material is published. Unless the media’s actions can be shown by the complainant to be completely beyond the pale, ACMA won’t even issue a warning, let alone take any actual protective action. The sum total of the guidance ACMA provides in relation to vulnerable people is that “[s]pecial care must be taken” [p. 4]. ACMA’s new guidelines give carte blanche to broadcasters to be as objectionable as they like in the pursuit of news, and to publish personal data that is unnecessary to the story, and that may cause the individuals concerned substantial offence or distress. Reflecting the low standards to which ‘The Australian’ has fallen on media freedoms issues, a News Ltd sub-editor contrived to make ACMA’s highly media friendly guidelines appear like an attack on media freedoms.

The concerns about media practices, particularly among Murdoch companies, spread to Australia, to the extent that the then CEO of the Australian arm, Neil Hartigan, felt constrained to issue a succession of announcements distancing Murdoch’s Australian newspapers from the practice of ‘phone hacking’. The claims about professionalism would have been stronger if anyone had been able to locate the Code of Conduct [to which he referred]. Adding to the controversies, in early September 2011, a 40,000-word analysis was published by a political scientist, which was highly critical of News Ltd’s behavior and its effect on Australian democracy.

Manne R. (2011) ‘Bad News: Murdoch’s Australian and the Shaping of the Nation’ Quarterly Essay 43, September 2011,  In Bad News, Robert Manne investigates Murdoch’s lead political voice here, The Australian newspaper, and how it shapes debate. Since 2002, under the editorship of Chris Mitchell, the Australian has come to see itself as judge, jury and would-be executioner of leaders and policies. Is this a dangerous case of power without responsibility? In a series of devastating case studies, Manne examines the paper’s campaigns against the Rudd Government and more recently the Greens, its climate change coverage and its ruthless pursuit of its enemies and critics. Manne also considers the standards of the paper and its influence more generally. This essay is part deep analysis and part vivid portrait of what happens when a newspaper goes rogue.”

During 2009-11, News Ltd outlets had been publishing ongoing, intemperate attacks on various aspects of the federal Government’s policies. One explanation was that “[The then Editor-in-Chief of ‘The Australian’, Chris Mitchell] has inculcated a view [at the newspaper] that they are there not only to critique and oversee the government, [but also that] it is their role to dictate policy shifts, that they are the true Opposition”.

Newspapers have a long history of editorializing on the eve of an election, giving readers the view of the editor-in-chief on which party would be best to lead the country. The editorial view is not supposed to influence a masthead’s coverage of the news, however, in 2015, the NT News published a strong editorial arguing that the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison government had ‘largely failed to deliver for the Territory’ and urging people to vote for Labor’s Luke Gosling and Warren Snowdon to retain their seats of Solomon and Lingiari. “The shocking levels of abuse and neglect of Aboriginal children wasn’t even on their radar until this newspaper led a relentless campaign on the issue, eventually leading to then Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull visiting Tennant Creek,” the NT News said. “Since he has taken over as PM, Morrison has shown little to no interest in this issue which seriously threatens the future prosperity of the Northern Territory and Australia.” The Australian, and stablemates the Daily Telegraph, the Herald Sun, the Courier Mail and the Advertiser all backed the Coalition.

So, in view of his position at number 1 in the NT News list of most powerful Territorians, it will be interesting to see how Matt Williams treats Terry Mills in his attempt to create a third force in Territory politics. In view of the fact that very few have any idea of what criteria are use to determine ‘the list’ it is difficult to predict the biases that will, no doubt, be repeated over and over in the months before August. Because the NT News is the only newspaper and, with the exception of the ABC, the only online source of information pertaining to politics in the NT, exceptional weight of opinion will be brought to bear on the voting public to adhere to the editors opinion, regardless of how poorly it reflects readers concerns.

The former chief minister and Member for Blain is an extremely dangerous species. He’s dangerous because no one really knows what influence his Territory Alliance party will have on the 2020 election. Will they win zero seats, will they win one seat. maybe two or will they win six or seven? It’s the million dollar question leading into what is one of the most intriguing elections in our history. Mills has gathered some impressive candidates and with so many people disenfranchised with the major parties; his party could be a force to be reckoned with. The problem he has right now is they haven’t unveiled any policies but that will come in time. He claims his party will operate on ‘consensus’ politics which is a dangerous position to be in. As much as he might think it, you can not and will not please everyone in politics. You have to make a stand at some stage on big issues. Mills seems deaf to the reasons why he was rolled as chief minister in 2013 but many Territorians haven’t forgotten. At the same time, Mills has a small army of supporters in the Territory but how big that army is remains to be seen. Mills‘ party will no doubt take votes away from the CLP in the 2020 election and he will split the conservative vote. Will that be enough for Labor to get over the line again? Or will his influence mean he will decide who wins power in a conservative coalition government? Either way. Mills is both our No.1 Most Powerful and our No.1 Most Dangerous.

Beheading the duck

Back in the day I used to write regularly for the NT News, not opinion pieces, just letters to the editor. Several times I got letter of the day. But, as I became more critical, the editor published less and less until I considered it a waste of effort. The final straw was when I challenged the NT News over their reporting of the election contest between the sitting member for Solomon and the Labor challenger, Luke Gosling. According to the members register of interests, Natasha Griggs had about 14 negatively geared properties. I did some tax calculations to show she was paying little or no income tax and sought an appointment with her so that she could refute my claims. She refused. Indeed I doubt that she even knew that I was interested, because her gatekeeper just blew me off. I wrote to the paper detailing my observations, believing that they were pertinent to consideration of the moral position of the candidates. They absolutely refused several attempts to tell voters what they were getting by voting for Ms Griggs, probably because she had an enormous electoral advertising budget, all directed toward the NT News.

Other things became more important, so I just read the odd piece in the paper that my wife bought. What really pissed me off was that other writers got whole pages, sometime multiple pages to copy the Murdoch Press line, including the far right jottings of Bolt et al. Now I don’t deny their right to an opinion [however radically wrong it is] but, because it’s the only newspaper in the NT [they immediately buy up, or find other methods of destroying any competition] I wrote to them saying they have an extra responsibility to reflect alternate consumers opinions, those that contradict their staff writers and those invited authors expressing a prejudiced point of view. They didn’t even answer. So I started blogging – it was a pleasure to write using polysyllabic words understood by other adults and including graphics and video.

On Saturday 14 December the Empty News published two full pages of opinion centered on renewable energy, one by Ian Satchwell and the other by regular contributor Matt Cunningham from skyNEWS. The first is principal of Airlie Asia and former director of the Department of Chief Minister. The latter is simply a mouthpiece for Rupert, repeating whatever he is told is the “message” of the day.

What Satchwell’s agenda is remains uncertain but his opinion shows a a distinct distaste for the facts and, common with the News, a penchant for inflammatory headlines. For instance, treating his readers like children [apparently he has complied with the News requirement to keep writing suitable for a reading age of 9 years] with statements like “Racing ahead with renewable energy will only end in disaster” and “The prospects of system blacks is what keeps operators – and politicians – awake at night.” The article is full of meaningless contradictions – on the one hand he says “that event which was not to do with renewables, but multiple system failures”, but elsewhere “with disruption coming from … rooftop solar, two way electricity flows along supply networks that supply cheap energy”. He obviously hasn’t read the report by the Green Energy Taskforce or the Road Map to Renewables because, if he had, he would know that the private market has overtaken anything proposed by the Government and confusing the Sun Cable project [designed to deliver energy to Singapore] with electricity supply to the Darwin grid exemplifies his poor grasp of the situation. And that the gas generated both onshore and off is unlikely to be used for local electricity generation but to create a gas manufacturing hub, primarily for export into Asia.

Cunningham uses techniques perfected by his colleagues such as Bolt, selective copying from published reports [in this case the Utilities Commission] to build a case for bashing the Government. Interesting, because on the facing page was a bunch of bulldust written about the same thing by a senior executive in the Economic and Environment Policy Department of the same Government. The other half of the article was reproduction of statements by an [unnamed] PWC manager about how inefficient PWC is, how much it costs to run T-gen etc. etc. Nothing was written about the subsidies cost of Indigenous Essential Services or SETuP or the participation by ARENA or the fact that PWC produced a surplus and paid a dividend – all left out because it didn’t suit the premise of the article, that the Government is useless in everything it does and says. In the concluding paragraphs of the article, Matt writes; “The Government can continue to hurtle toward its renewable energy target, putting at risk the reliability of the electricity supply and further damage to its already disastrous budget situation.” Failing to point out that the Government has already lost control of the energy future, the market will determine the future where “Advancing technology in battery and hydrogen storage could mean issues with renewable reliability could be mitigated”.

Electricity networks transport power from generators to our homes and businesses. Like roads and freeways, they are built at a size to keep electricity moving at times of maximum demand – peak hour. Yet the price we pay to use electricity networks is the same whatever the time of day or season. Network tariff reform is widely acknowledged as an essential pre-requisite to support the efficient utilisation of the network by consumers, minimise cross-subsidies between customers, enable the efficient integration of new technologies, defer network augmentation, and put downward pressure on prices. Dynamic pricing structures, in particular capacity and time-of-use tariffs, have proven to be an extremely effective way of managing peak demand by providing consumers with the means to compare the value they place on using the network with the costs caused by their use of it. While key stakeholders agree that network tariff reform in the NT is well overdue, a number of issues impact on the Territory’s capacity to introduce cost reflective tariffs and other enabling technologies that allow consumers to respond to price signals. The price therefore provides no incentive to use the network efficiently by avoiding peak times. Two major reforms to the way network companies charge customers for the cost of carrying power to homes and small businesses need to be introduced.

First, the 38% of the consumer bill that goes to fund the network should no longer be based on total energy use. Instead, consumers should pay for the maximum load they put on the network. This tariff is called a capacity-based charge because it is based on the capacity of the infrastructure that must be built to carry this maximum load. A capacity charge far better reflects the cost of building and running the network. Yet this reform alone may not reduce peak demand in areas where the network is under pressure. Therefore the report also proposes the introduction of a new tariff in areas that – in the absence of prices that better reflect the cost of running the network – will require expensive infrastructure upgrades. Under this tariff, consumers will be charged more for use during times [usually in summer] when the network is under most strain. Because these periods drive total investment in infrastructure, reducing peak demand levels ultimately leads to lower prices. These reforms will give all consumers incentives to use electricity more efficiently. When they do, the pressure on network companies to invest in infrastructure will fall, and power prices with it. Advanced electricity meters will need to be installed on most NT homes, at considerable short term cost.

Source: Grattan Institute – Fair Pricing for Power.

Increasing use of air conditioners in homes is a major driver of peak demand growth. Consider the case of a customer who purchases an air conditioner with a capacity rating of five kilowatts. This air conditioner could add between $1200 and $1550 to the cost of the network. Yet its owner would only pay an extra $53.40 a year in network charges. Because the network business does not recover their costs through usage charges associated with using the air conditioner, they must recover these costs in other ways. The result is higher prices for all users.

A similar situation may occur when households install rooftop solar. If peak demand occurs at a time when the sun is shining, then rooftop solar can help reduce peak demand. Yet in many areas, peak demand occurs in the evening when output from solar panels is low. Some households will pay substantially less to use the network after they install rooftop solar, since more of the network charge is based on the amount of energy the household requires from the network. Yet, if consumption at peak times remains the same, then the cost a household imposes on the network will not change. Again, other users must pay more to cover the gap.

Recent technological developments have created both a need and an opportunity to improve the way households pay for power. The need comes in part from the widespread adoption of air conditioning and rooftop solar. The opportunity comes from improvements in metering technology and data management systems. The cost of metering and data processing used to be a major constraint on the types and amount of data collected from customers. This, in turn, narrowed the range of tariffs that could be charged. In recent years, the cost of these technologies has fallen substantially. While data processing and a roll out of smart meters would still be expensive, they make it possible for bills to be calculated far more precisely, based on a household’s maximum consumption level, geographic location in the network, or consumption at certain times of day or during peak demand periods.

Second, the retailer could introduce new technology products to help customers manage their electricity use. Some of these products are already becoming available. From 2015, all new Australian air conditioners must have the ability to be fitted with a remote control system. Households will not be obliged to use this feature, but some may choose to – possibly to help reduce their use during a critical peak pricing period. Another example is customers using battery storage to reduce their maximum capacity requirement. For example, there are a number of companies that sell hybrid household power storage systems that store energy from rooftop solar and automatically switches between drawing power from the network and using batteries when stored energy is available.

The Committee on the Northern Territory’s Energy Future [CONTEF] found that tariff reform in the Territory is largely constrained by the fact that the majority of smaller network users still have standard accumulation meters. While Jacana Energy’s recently introduced Switch to Six time-of-use retail tariff incorporates a Meter Cost Smoothing Plan to assist with meeting the cost of meter upgrades, costs associated with the removal and replacement of asbestos meter panels represents a significant barrier to the voluntary uptake of advanced meters and an undue cost burden on affected customers. In line with other jurisdictions, the Committee has recommended that a new and replacement Electricity Meter Policy is developed that supports a market-led installation of advanced meters. The Committee has also recommended the establishment of an advanced Meter Upgrade Rebate program to compensate residential and small business customers for installation costs associated with the removal and replacement of asbestos switchboard and meter panels.

An alternative network for clean energy supply in the Top End.

A study commissioned by the Clean Energy Finance Corporation identifies how a cooperative approach to saving energy could cut billions of dollars from the nation’s electricity bills. Investing in Savings: Finance and Cooperative Approaches to Electricity Demand Management, a study by the Institute for Sustainable Futures of the University of Technology Sydney, has found that electricity network businesses could become the source of big energy savings for households and business. While historically underutilised in Australia, overseas experience shows that Demand Management can reduce business and household electricity bills through:

• Lower customer energy consumption, via improving end use energy efficiency,
• Lower wholesale energy prices and reduced need for peak electricity generation,
• Deferred or avoided network capital expenditure, which has been the main driver of recent electricity bill increases.

Demand Management can be a highly cost effective means of reducing carbon emissions and increasing the uptake of clean energy initiatives, such as increased energy efficiency and renewable and low emission generation. “It is estimated that savings of $900-$1900 per household could be delivered in instances where Demand Management is taken up,” said the report’s lead author Chris Dunstan, a Research Director at the Institute for Sustainable Futures of the University of Technology Sydney.

The CEFC is focused on the transition occurring in the energy system and seeks the most efficient solution that produces grid infrastructure that is robust, capable and cost effective for the changing energy market and for lower carbon outcomes. Clear Government policy intent requesting network businesses to establish performance measures and targets to deliver Demand Management would allow the private sector to provide alternative solutions to the current consistent pattern of building more infrastructure to meet peak demand. “The CEFC can assist networks to achieve this transition sooner”, CEO Oliver Yates said.

Emerging clean, decentralised energy technologies and business models present opportunities for the CEFC to play its role in helping accelerate the market uptake of clean energy technologies including solar PV, hybrid fuel cells, energy storage, advanced meters, electric vehicle infrastructure and smart energy management and energy efficient products. The CEFC has the mandate and investment capacity to provide capital to accelerate the adoption of demand management activities in Australia.

The Smart Grid, Smart City trials indicated that there is potential for distributed generation to export into the grid during peak events thus providing a cost effective alternative to centralised generation from conventional centralised generators. What is clear from the modeled smart grid case is that the introduction of smart meters, in conjunction with dynamic tariffs provides a stronger ability for electricity customers to participate in the energy market as well as an improved opportunity to manage the future growth of electricity peak demand in Australia. As well as moderating peak demand growth, the introduction of smart meter infrastructure with dynamic tariffs has the ability to reduce (in real terms) future electricity bills for many consumers, including those ‘passive consumers’ who choose not to make behavioural changes, adopt dynamic tariffs or deploy distributed generation devices.

Trial investigations showed that smart inverters [also termed STATCOMs when referring to low voltage regulation] had the potential to provide voltage regulation services for network operators. However, rooftop solar PV owners are not currently financially rewarded to install smart inverters which have the potential for undertaking voltage regulation if these inverters were set up on distributed generation systems [particularly rooftop solar PV] to only export onto the grid when the voltage was low. Additionally if there was distributed generation capacity on site, smart inverters could be used to import electricity from the grid when voltage was high [also assisting with voltage regulation].

The challenge with existing financial incentives [feed-in-tariffs] is that rooftop solar PV inverters are setup for exporting electricity and there may need to be alternative incentives introduced [e.g. for regulation of power quality] to encourage system owners to install smart inverters and offer voltage regulation services. Investigations around smart inverters are likely to require both embedded network trials and financial assessments in order to determine the business case for this technology.

If smart inverters can be shown to be cost effective in delivering voltage control and power quality benefits, consideration should be given to increasing the minimum standards for existing inverters in Australia. In this way some of the costs of network remediation caused by increasing numbers of rooftop solar PV could be better managed. This work should involve network operators, standards bodies and industry peak bodies.

Distributed generation.

Distributed generation has the potential to contribute to the management of growth in system peak demand and has implications for future electricity bill increases. Modelling showed that despite anticipated price reductions in distributed storage devices, without changes to retail electricity pricing structures [i.e. under BAU] there will be little deployment of storage through to 2034 in Australia. For commercial customers under the BAU case, price signals encourage investment in Combined Heat and Power [CHP] systems. The systems will export to the grid during times of low demand, incentivised by a volume based inclining block tariff. This suggests that solar PV for commercial customers is likely to be a financially viable solution in the future regardless of scenario, given the anticipated further reduction in solar PV panel and fuel cell costs.

In summary, under the smart grid case, dynamic pricing [network capacity charge in combination with a retail critical peak price] drives the deployment of smaller rooftop solar PV systems and CHP in the NEM by 2034 compared to BAU. Under both BAU and smart grid cases, there is growing adoption of solar PV generation by both residential and commercial electricity consumers. The field trial and modelling showed that the effectiveness of rooftop solar PV systems in reducing summer peak demand is limited, mainly due to misalignment of the timing of rooftop solar PV system output and peak network demand. In the case of the field trial for small wind turbines, generation profiles were highly variable and intermittent and did not necessarily match customer energy usage or network peak load profiles.

While the fuel cell technology trialed had capability to reduce network peak load, the more efficient operating mode was ‘continuous operation’ [constant output at the rated capacity of 1.5kW] reducing network load at all times. The results from the trial indicated that the potential customer value of this technology was highest for customers with a higher than average electricity consumption and the ability to better utilise the heat which is generated as a by-product, for instance as used in a trigeneration system coupled to an absorption chiller [space air conditioning or refrigeration unit].

Currently, exports during peak events from distributed generation devices are not efficiently valued. At present, any export during these events is valued at the feed-in-tariff rate, based on the weighted average cost of wholesale electricity during solar PV export hours, rather than the higher value of generation at peak times. Notwithstanding, there are no existing regulatory barriers to retailers offering a dynamic feed-in-tariff which increases during peak events to better reflect retailer costs. It is foreseeable that once distributed generation technology becomes more broadly available, retailers would implement such a tariff which would be a further incentive to distributed generation uptake beyond what has been modeled.

Even with such a dynamic feed in tariff, there remain barriers for network businesses to provide price signals to customers as to value of export from distributed generation during network peak events. Such a price signal could potentially take the form of a one off incentive payment or network rebate during events. This would essentially function as a demand response mechanism [similar to the dynamic peak rebate product trialed], but would reward customers for not just offsetting their own demand but for achieving negative net demand in peak times.

The COAG Energy Council should, in conjunction with the AEMC, develop a market mechanism which more efficiently values export from distributed energy generation during market and network peak events. In this way customers may be financially encouraged to export electricity from distributed generation devices in response to market signals. For non-NEM states, state and territory governments should consider the most appropriate organisation to undertake a similar review.

Consumer bill impacts.

Annual customer bills were assessed under the smart grid case and BAU case for passive customers [customers who do not adopt distributed generation and remain on inclining block tariffs], and distributed generation customers [business customers who adopt distributed generation along with a critical peak pricing and time-of-use tariff].

The traditional electricity system which saw the dispatch of electricity from large centralised generators transported [in one direction] over sometimes large distances to consumers is rapidly changing. The continuing uptake of rooftop solar PV and the potential for economic generation solutions [given cost effective pricing] means that distribution networks are becoming a far more dynamic and responsive system.  Smart grid technologies offer the potential to better predict electricity supply and demand at specific locations in the grid, continuously monitor the condition of the grid and major assets, to dynamically reconfigure the network and more efficiently utilise labour and materials. These technologies also provide the opportunity to interact with customers in order to actively manage demand on different parts of the network. There has been significant conjecture as to whether smart grid technologies will be able to ‘better manage’ larger volumes of distributed generation in the future. The findings of the national net cost benefit assessment based on the trial findings of the Smart Grid, Smart City Program have suggested that a smart grid can manage larger volumes of distributed generation at a lower cost per connection.

The NT situation.

The monopoly PWC network is highly centralised with a large scale electricity generator and a single transmission and distribution network to support the delivery of electricity from Channel Island throughout Darwin and Palmerston and down the track to Katherine.

This is slowly changing as more and more small scale renewable generators connect to the grid. It is also changing in the face of growing evidence that decentralised energy [energy efficiency, peak load management and distributed generation] built to local scale, has the potential to reduce the need for costly network infrastructure and increase the flexibility of the electricity network to support multiple small scale and intermittent generators and demand management options.

An estimated one third of the current investment in the networks is to cater for growth, and in particular, growth in peak demand. Peak demand refers to the points of highest electricity demand during a single half hour period within the network. Peak demand events occur for less than forty hours per year [or less than 1% of the time] yet account for approximately 25% of the average residential bill because the electricity network must be built to accommodate this peak. Peak demand growth is projected to continue to outpace growth in energy consumption over the next decade, placing further upward pressure on electricity prices. As electricity demand becomes ‘peakier’, i.e. as it is characterised by higher maximum demand relative to average demand, the efficiency of the network diminishes, and the investment that is made to augment the network becomes less and less efficient.

For reliable and secure electricity supply, PWC must ensure that appropriate levels of network infrastructure investment are undertaken in advance of peak demand occurring. Demand management assists by deploying initiatives to reduce peak demand thereby reducing the need for network investment while still meeting customers’ evolving energy needs. Initiatives, both existing and future, include:

• Residential demand management programs that provide customers with incentives to take up a direct load control option for air-conditioning, hot water, pool pumps and a range of other appliances;
• Targeted demand management initiatives that provide incentives to commercial and industrial customers to reduce peak demand in areas where significant network capital investment is expected within five to ten years; and
• Shorter term demand management projects to address specific network constraints within one to five years;

Demand side solutions are consistently lower cost for the Territory electricity system when compared with supply side solutions [i.e. new generation, both fossil fuel and renewable, and new network infrastructure]. Cost curve analysis shows demand management activities, particularly industrial, commercial and residential energy efficiency measures, are well below the cost per MWh of supply side solutions for meeting peak demand.

Rooftop solar power has slashed Australians’ demand for electricity during the day, but left evening peak power demand largely unchanged. With a mix of individual household, power company and government action, demand could be significantly reduced for the most expensive peak power that requires massive, wasteful infrastructure spending. In doing so, one of the biggest, hidden charges built in Australians’ power bills would be decreased: the A$350 a year that households without air conditioners are being slugged to subsidise the bills of households running air conditioning at peak times would be reduced. And solar powered homes can play an important role in reducing that hidden air conditioning subsidy, while also defusing the argument that homes using clean energy aren’t paying their share of electricity costs.

The replacement of substantial daytime electricity consumption by PV panels on more than 1.2 million installed solar systems across Australia has visibly changed the way we draw power from the electricity grid. The new look daily trend in Australians’ power use has been nicknamed “the duck”: the green line on the graph below, from a recent Energy Networks Association publication The Road to Fairer Prices, shows why!

How demand for power over the day has changed dramatically in recent years linked with the rise of solar PV panels. There is now a steep drop in demand during the day [while the sun is shining] but little has changed to the evening peak, sparking this call to “behead the duck”. However, Australia’s power duck is not benign as it drives large amounts of investment in electricity supply infrastructure – and that costs everyone connected up to a power pole more money. It is now argued that, while solar PV hits daytime electricity sales and revenue, it does little or nothing to reduce this evening peak, as shown in the Energy Networks Association [ENA] graph below. This peak now drives electricity supply infrastructure costs, which comprise around half of our electricity bills. Indeed, the ENA – the national body representing electricity transmission and distribution businesses throughout Australia – has recently suggested that a power consumer without solar PV panels now pays a subsidy to homes with solar PV panels, due to “under-recovery of network costs” during summer evening peak periods.

The rapid rise of small-scale solar PV installations across Australia. Data from the Clean Energy Regulator, small scale installations summary data. The rapid rise of home air conditioners is driving up the cost of power for all Australians. By 2020, experts warn that electricity use for air conditioning looks set to be five times greater than in 1990. Productivity Commission 2013, Electricity Network Regulatory Frameworks.

Even so, that cost is much smaller than the subsidy to users of air conditioners. The Productivity Commission estimates that the installation of each air conditioner adds A$2500 to the capital cost of power lines and power stations: costs that all power consumers have to cover. Much of that extra equipment is used for only a few hours each year, mainly on hot summer evenings. The graph below, from the Productivity Commission’s 2013 report on electricity networks, shows power use from a sample of 3000 homes. The maximum demand for household power in the evening can be up to 5 kilowatts, or almost double the average demand on evenings for most of the year. If the difference between the average and peak day is considered, and presume that all of this peak difference is due to air conditioning load, it seems peak demand is around 2.4 kilowatts higher between 7pm and 10pm. If areas of wasteful energy use in inefficient air conditioned NT homes were reduced, at least A$250 a year in hidden subsidies for each of those houses may be avoided. And even more could be saved if high peak-demand homes in areas where network infrastructure is already under pressure were targeted. As an example of the potential for change, the graph below presents results from a UK study in which a range of energy efficiency and demand management strategies was used to cut their peak demand times.

The single biggest period of demand for power in the UK happens in the late afternoon and early evening. When the study authors added extra plasma TVs into the mix [scenario 1, the top line], power demand climbed even further. So they showed how it was possible to reduce that demand with a mix of better appliances, LED lighting and low-energy refrigeration [scenario 6, shown with the red line].Combine low-energy appliances with more efficient LCD TVs, rather than plasma TVs, and the demand fell sharply shown with scenario 8, the bottom line.

The promise of micro Combined Heat and Power [mCHP] generation for residential and small business premises in Australia includes energy efficiencies approaching 80%, and 50% to 25% lower emissions than hot water and grid power alternatives. Scant government support and stubbornly high costs have to date held the technology back from reaching its potential. However, a new generation of products, backed by CSIRO programs, appear poised to finally deliver on the promise. Despite its false starts to date, mCHP will play a significant role over the next decade as a transitional pathway for energy suppliers to meet their RET obligations. As such, mCHP offers a bridge between the low cost, low energy efficiency and high carbon emission of centralised generation and the high cost, zero carbon emissions of renewable energy.

See also: http://theconversation.com/slash-australians-power-bills-by-beheading-a-duck-at-night-27234